Leakage Corrections for GRACE Level-3 Solutions and Associated Induced Uncertainties in Manometric Sea Level Estimation

by Lecomte, H., Blazquez, A., Fourest, S., Meyssignac, B., Pfeffer, J., Boughanemi, A. and Pellereau, E.
International Association of Geodesy Symposia
April, 2026

Spatial leakage remains a major source of uncertainty in GRACE and GRACE-FO time-variable gravity solutions, particularly when estimating manometric sea level in coastal regions. We present a refined leakage correction method integrated into a Level-2 to Level-3 processing framework based on spherical harmonics solutions. The leakage correction iteratively estimates the mean local ocean signal unaffected by leakage to estimate the coastal signal. The approach mitigates filtering-induced aliasing in coastal sea-level signals while preserving consistency with expected geophysical variations. The leakage correction is applied in the processing chain, following low-degree corrections, DDK filtering, corrections for GIA and earthquake events, within an ensemble-based framework. Comparative analysis with existing leakage correction methodologies highlights differences in coastal sea-level behavior, while the ensemble logic enables quantification of uncertainties induced by leakage correction. Applied to the CNES Level-3 ensemble solution, the refined leakage correction increases the global barystatic sea-level trend estimated between 2005 to 2015 from 1.50 mm.yr⁻¹ (no correction) to 2.09–2.20 mm.yr⁻¹ for the regional mean-ocean, and local iterative methods, in agreement with the JPL mascon + CRI estimate (2.05 mm.yr⁻¹) and the altimetry-minus-thermosteric benchmark (1.99 mm.yr⁻¹). Ensemble analysis indicates a global trend uncertainty of the global trend uncertainties is 0.22 mm.yr⁻¹, with leakage correction contributing the largest share (0.17 mm.yr⁻¹). Accurate leakage correction plays a critical role in reducing uncertainties in coastal sea level estimates and improving the consistency with independent observations of the global ocean. These advances thereby reinforce GRACE and GRACE-FO as essential tools for closing the global sea-level budget and improving the geodetic estimates of the thermosteric component

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